Who will rule Andalusia?

Andalusia came out of the recent election with a hung parliament, and Susana Diaz of the PSOE party continues running round all the opposition parties to see if she can put together some sort of coalition ahead of next weeks investiture.

If she can’t get support, she won’t be voted in as President of Andalusia and the region will continue without a parliament.

In order to rule, the PSOE has to make a coalition with either its national rivals the PP (which would really put the cat amongst the pigeons) or Podemos. If it can’t with either of those, it would have to make a super coalition of three parties, which is even more difficult, as the fourth largest party, Cuidadanos, isn’t any keener than Podemos to support the PSOE. If Susana can get enough votes to pass her investiture next week, then she could rule a minority government, doing deals with other parties ahead of key votes – if she can get support for next weeks vote.

Both Podemos and Cuidadanos have a lot more to lose than to win by going into coalition, and they’re all playing hardball. Currently, they say that unless their list of demands are met, they will keep voting against Susana.

Podemos, the left wing “hope of Spain” party broke off a second round of talks today saying it was “pointless even to start” negotiating with the PSOE until the party bought some “common sense” to the negotiations.

Podemos has made its position quite clear. It will support Susana Diaz as President (not a coalition) which would allow her to rule a minority administration if and only if the PSOE agree to drastically cut political positions in the Junta de Andalucia, and put the money towards hospitals; if Susana Diaz expels from the party her two predecessors, Griñán and Chaves, both of whom are under investigation for allowing the theft of mind boggling amounts of money from the public purse during their reigns (this would remove parliamentary immunity from these crooks and allow them to be prosecuted); and that the Junta stop working with any banks that carry out evictions.

Cuidadanos, the same as Podemos but pro-business, have much the same list of demands.

But it seems that at today’s meeting, the PSOE didn’t turn up with any of the information that Podemos had requested, so Podemos left the meeting “until the PSOE start negotiating in good faith”. But the trouble is that Susana can’t possibly agree to any of their terms without causing a national rupture in the party.

The only comment the PSOE had on the meeting was to urge everyone to respect the democratic wishes of the region and to allow Susana to become President “as the electorate have clearly asked for”. My, did I chuckle when I read that.

So what happens if Susana doesn’t win next weeks vote? Well, the impossible might just happen: the PSOE and PP might “work together”, ie an unofficial coalition, and a newspaper this afternoon got wind that negotiations are already well underway, with both parties discussing who would get which ministry in the Junta.

Susana seems almost certain to lose next weeks vote. That means there will be another vote in two weeks time. The best she can hope for is to convince enough of the other parties to abstain from voting against her, which would allow her to slip in “under the net”, as she only needs a simple majority of the vote, not the parliament.

If she still can’t get in, there will be one final vote and then new elections will have to be called for in September.

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